The Fugitive Recovery

Dealmakers are on edge these days.  They’re dying for some action, but nobody can figure out where the boundary lines lie for this economy.  Predictability remains rottenly bad, and that means the risk needle is stuck in the red zone.

There’s a lot of money burning the pockets of cash-rich corporations and private equity players.  But the people I talk to say Washington has them too spooked to play the M&A game for now.

It’s the end of August, and President Obama’s so-called “Summer of Recovery” looks like a blatant violation of truth in labeling.  The uncertainty and deteriorating statistics have wilted the ambitions of most acquirers.

Sure, we see a few deals in the news, and let’s presume for now that they’re shrewdly conceived.  The fact remains that M&A success is about a 50-50 proposition even in good times.  If the economy slogs along like this for another year or more, and especially if it slumps further, the odds of failure get scary.

Some executives will conclude—and rightly so—that now’s the time for them to strike a deal.  Let’s just say that top-notch execution will be more critical than ever.  Better polish up that integration game plan!